Stagflation, Recession or a Reprieve?

$997.00

About this Report: Disruptive events in Q2 2022—Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, severe virus lockdowns in China, an about-face in Federal Reserve policy, and a plethora of ripple effects—have forced a major downgrading of global growth expectations. From an initial global GDP growth estimate of 4.0% for 2022 at the beginning...

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About this Report:

Disruptive events in Q2 2022—Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, severe virus lockdowns in China, an about-face in Federal Reserve policy, and a plethora of ripple effects—have forced a major downgrading of global growth expectations.

From an initial global GDP growth estimate of 4.0% for 2022 at the beginning of this year, our base-case forecast now calls for 2.1% real global growth this year, together with 7.7% average global consumer price inflation.

These expectations amount to global stagflation—an environment of low growth and high inflation. There is also a moderate probability the global economy sees an outright recession in the next 18 months, and a relatively low probability the global economy experiences a reprieve characterized by low-moderate growth and gradually easing inflation.

In this challenging environment, multinational businesses should adopt a scenario approach to planning and look for creative ways to win despite macroeconomic headwinds.

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  • Executive Summary
  • Downgrade of Expectations
  • Strengthening Headwinds
  • Growth Scenarios
  • Driver One: China's Zero-Covid Strategy
  • Driver Two: Europe's Energy Supply
  • Driver Three: Fed Policy
  • Scenarios for the Global Economy (2022-23)
  • A Host of Global Scenarios
  • Base Case for 2022-23
  • Global Stagflation: Implications & Suggested Actions
  • Downside for 2022-23
  • Global Recession: Implications & Suggested Actions
  • Highest-Likelihood Best Case
  • Best Case: Implications & Suggested Actions
  • Planning Implications and Actions to Take