Sub-Saharan Africa Outlook

About this Report:

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will continue to display upbeat growth in 2022 thanks to a resilient private sector. However, the conflict in Ukraine creates winners and losers in SSA, both in terms of markets and industries. Punitive Western economic sanctions on Russia will likely remain in place for the rest of 2022, contributing to surging demand and prices for many of SSA’s metals, fuels, and agriculture exports.

Angola, South Africa, Mozambique, and Nigeria stand to benefit most directly and could see stronger currencies and less pronounced (but still high) inflationary pressures. In contrast, economies exposed to European consumers and those that are dependent on Russian and Ukrainian food imports—such as Kenya, Senegal, Cote d’Ivoire, and to an extent Ghana—face sharply deteriorating terms of trade.

Additionally, all markets face a surge in inflation this year, curtailing consumer sentiment. Multinational companies should review their market assumptions and focus business development resources on high-growth markets and industries to capitalize on the upsides of the global commodity price boom, while reviewing their product portfolios and pricing strategies to cope with rising inflation.

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