Europe Energy Outlook
About this Report: Gazprom’s announcement that it will reduce gas supplies to Europe via the Nord Stream I pipeline comes amid previous cuts to the Yamal pipeline and gas infrastructure via Ukraine and the Baltics. The move is a retaliation for the EU’s oil embargo and has resulted in a...
About this Report:
Gazprom’s announcement that it will reduce gas supplies to Europe via the Nord Stream I pipeline comes amid previous cuts to the Yamal pipeline and gas infrastructure via Ukraine and the Baltics. The move is a retaliation for the EU’s oil embargo and has resulted in a 65% reduction in overall physical flows to Europe.
In response, EU governments have begun to trigger their contingency plans for gas shortages this winter and will seek to increase gas supply from alternative sources. Gas rationing has thus become highly likely and will drag many European markets into a recession in H2 2022, as authorities prioritize households, essential services, SMEs, and strategically important sectors, such as healthcare.
While these pressures are set to subside in 2023 as the EU increases LNG imports, the economic shock will linger throughout next year as well.
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- Executive Summary
- Scenarios for Europe
- Global Outlook Revisions for 2022-23
- Europe Outlook for 2022-23
- The Russia-Ukraine War
- Europe's Energy Consumption Remains Vulnerable
- Gas Supply to Europe Saw a Drastic Drop in June 2022
- Cuts to Gas Supply to Europe will be Permanent
- Gas Storage Levels Have Seen a Steady Increase
- Increase in Coal Imports Will Not Offset Gas Cuts
- Energy Prices Surge Amid Severe Supply Disruptions
- Inflation Will Subside Gradually Only in 2023
- EU Nations Put Forward Contingency Plans
- Rationing Priorities Will Be Uniform Across the EU
- Existing Measures to Protect Households
- Business Implications & Actions to Take