Global Outlook

About this Report:

Global economic activity has experienced a major downshift in 2022, and headwinds will continue into 2023.

In our base case, we anticipate just 2.1% real global GDP growth in 2022 and 1.6% growth in 2023, a rate consistent with a mild global recession. Cost pressures will persist despite weakening demand, as many drivers of inflation appear entrenched.

Although the outlook is unequivocally negative, unknowns and uncertainties around China’s Zero-COVID strategy, Europe’s energy supply, and Federal Reserve policy continue to dominate. 2023 is expected to see further depreciation across a range of currencies, a global manufacturing downturn, and easing prices for some inputs and commodities.

Weak or negative growth along with high inflation is a recipe for social unrest, and companies should be attuned to the potential for political surprises across markets of operation. A challenging environment nonetheless offers opportunities to pursue innovations and reorient strategy; companies that prioritize resilient segments, support customers and partners, and effectively communicate their value proposition stand to outperform the market.

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